Trump v Zelenskyy
Beyond the blowup
This week was a rare win for peace. I couldn’t care less how it came about. Frankly, I wish J.D. Vance and Zelenskyy had actually traded physical blows. I don’t care who’s in the wrong, or if Zelenskyy should’ve worn a suit.
I was pleased that this ‘debacle’ stunned the so-called ‘world leaders’ into taking peace seriously. Yet I’m disappointed by how deep we’ve sunk into this feminized society, where men speaking plainly and acting like men can spark such moral panic.
The polite world’s first reaction was predictable: the same old fear-hive triggered by their over-medicated minds. Then, next thing you know, Britain’s Prime Minister Keir Starmer and Canada’s Justin Trudeau are yammering about a “coalition of the willing” to guarantee peace.
Gone are the girlboss militarism days of Finnish Prime Minister Sanna Marin, who insisted, “the way out of the conflict is for Russia to leave Ukraine.” She was shown the way out of office, so were Joe Biden and Boris Johnson — and with ‘the adult’ back in the room, the only way out is obvious: a ceasefire and a peace deal. And yes, that means dealing with Putin.
A Series of Underrated Circumstances
A ceasefire underwritten by the United States is far more valuable than its critics let on. No matter how often Zelenskyy insists Putin broke his word on the Minsk Accords, as Trump reminded him, Putin never broke a deal brokered by Trump. Let’s not underrate that. Or the fact Trump’s likely the only person who can credibly bring Putin to the table.
Apart from the obvious benefits for Ukraine, such ceasefire alone, if successful, might reignite the idea that the West can peel Russia away from China — which might come handy one day. The first stage of this arrangement, involving rare earth mineral rights, was ready to be announced Friday. It’s not flawless, but it would be the biggest breakthrough since the invasion began three years ago.
No one truly knows how much those mineral rights are worth, but Ukraine stands to lose them all to Russia anyway. Splitting the pot with the U.S. is a sensible plan. The agreement will likely need constant renegotiation, exposing Trump to considerable reputational risks if it falls apart. He’s putting skin in the game, which is nothing to sneer at.
I’m not convinced, though, it fully aligns U.S. and Ukrainian interests. Ukraine will always matter more to Russia than it does to America. Without firm security guarantees — and relying solely on commercial interests — Russia could simply seize those regions and maintain the status quo.
What Zelenskyy Really Means by ‘Security Guarantees’
When Zelenskyy demands “security guarantees,” he essentially wants two things: Western boots on the ground, preferentially NATO troops, if possible American. So far, France and the U.K. have stepped up, but Zelenskyy pointed out in the Oval Office that Europe “won’t be ready” without the U.S. backing them. In other words, they’ll only protect Ukraine if America protects them first.
Enter the hapless Macron-Starmer vaudeville act that courted Trump over the previous weeks. Russia, of course, won’t accept NATO troops in Ukraine unless the U.N. Security Council—where Moscow holds a veto—permits it. The plan was to secure Trump’s nod and then have Zelenskyy sign off on the minerals pact.
Which leads me to believe Zelenskyy never intended to sign the initial ceasefire agreement without security guarantees, given his claim that, in his experience, they “don’t work.”
A Ukrainian Iron Dome?
In the absence of American troops, Zelenskyy asked for “air defense support,” or what amounts to human shields from Europe and a U.S.-supplied Iron Dome. He’s not wrong to want it — but it’s a gamble. If Russia hits one of these outposts, the tragedy could escalate into global catastrophe depending on whose passports are on the casualties.
So Trump’s right: Zelenskyy is rolling the dice on World War III, egged on by clueless European leaders corralled by previous American leadership into a shared delusion of power. Suppose France deploys a battalion of 100 troops, and Putin — or one of his rogue warlords — blows them up. Then what? France sends its lone aircraft carrier? Maybe Turkey lets them sail into the Black Sea. Putin might sink it with a couple of hypersonic missiles, killing thousands of French soldiers. Welcome to World War III.
We’ve heard what Zelenskyy mens by security guarantees. Now we need to hear it from Trump.
Compromises
From the Oval Office, Zelenskyy declared, “together [Ukraine and the US] we can stop” Putin. He also insisted there’d be “no compromise with the killer [Putin] about our territories.” Meanwhile, Trump made it crystal clear some compromises must be on the table.
Ukraine refuses to accept a ceasefire without security guarantees. The U.S. can’t negotiate a peace deal with Russia unless there’s a ceasefire in place. Meanwhile, Russia only wants a ceasefire if it receives its own guarantees. Trump claims he’ll push for Ukraine to regain as much territory as possible, even suggesting they might reclaim some coastline. It’s hard to imagine Russia giving up any of it. Lavrov (Putin’s Foreign Minister) just reiterated Russia’s stance: there will be no ceasefire “along the current contact line.”
There will be compromises.
The Money Problem
During the press conference, Zelenskyy cited a so-called “rule of war” that whoever starts a war pays. Obviously, it’s whoever loses that pays. He’s got his eyes on the $300 billion in frozen Russian central bank assets—$250 billion locked by Europe, $5 billion by the U.S., and the rest in Asia. Note these are central bank reserves, not oligarch or corporate funds, so Russia will haggle fiercely to get them back.
There’s already a problem: over-collateralization. Europe isn’t giving money to Ukraine out of the kindness of their hearts. Sixty percent of the ‘aid’ from Europe is repayable loans. Zelenskyy is racking up debt, assuming they’ll seize Russia’s frozen billions to pay it off. That’s far from guaranteed.
Combine EU and the U.K., and you’re looking at an $850 billion annual fiscal deficit. Europe’s also got a demographics crisis to deal with, and $16.5 trillion in debt nearing 100% of GDP. There’s not much wiggle room for debt forgiveness.
Zelenskyy also wants that $300 billion to rebuild Ukraine, a job the World Bank estimates at nearly $500 billion. Meanwhile, Russia already announced plans to release those funds for reconstruction in the areas under its control.
Against this background, Trump’s mineral deal looks downright reasonable.
Trump Isn’t Bullying Zelenskyy — Putin Is
War demands ugly tradeoffs: sometimes you trade ‘peace in our time’ for ‘peace for our time.’ Zelenskyy must realize he’s stuck between a rock and a giant meat grinder. The only way out is to give Trump plausible deniability to wrest real concessions from Russia.
Can Ukraine outright defeat Russia without causing World War 3? Certainly not. Better for the U.S. to broker a deal sooner rather than later.
Here’s where Trump needs to be more assertive. Asked about US troops on NATO’s Eastern Flank, he reaffirms commitment to Poland—he likes that they “pay their fair share.” He’s less enthusiastic about defending the Baltics. And when pressed on who protects the mineral-rich areas under the prospective deal if Russia attacks, he didn’t elaborate.
What’s really on the line here isn’t just Ukraine’s territory or curbing Russia’s ambitions. It’s about restoring America’s place as the global powerhouse, especially now that China’s flexing its muscles and Europe’s stumbling in its own weakness. We should care more about that than whether Zelenskyy wears a suit or how polite J.D. Vance was to him.
"I couldn't care less how it came about." Amen. Precisely my feelings when Russia first invaded. Just poised there, watching the western world, will they or won't they. Will they do the smart thing and let the two countries duke it out on their own to a resolution in a matter of months, or will they do the immensely stupid thing they actually ended up doing. I was for peace before world war was risked in the first place, and i couldn't care less how it came about.
I believe there is no solution to this "war." WWI ended with the combatants laying down their arms and quitting the whole unwinnable disaster. The cost of war was worse for the countries involved than what their enemies did to them. Germany, especially, was internally bankrupt and literally out of men to throw in the trenches of the Western Front.
I think that the war between Ukraine and Russia is also unwinnable in the sense that neither Russia nor Ukraine can continue fighting without outside support.
The countries that could support them see the same picture of impending collapse. Maybe a review of the events leading up to the WWI armistance would be worthwhile for the purpose of negotiating a similar solution to the Russia and Ukraine stalemate - neither of these countries can play this game indefinitely.
Selling their souls to other entities (especially China) is not a solution - nobody will support either side without getting something in return.
Simply, it's just time to quit the fight and start rebuilding. Ultimately, if Russia wins, they will have a "sick child" on their hands that will cost them more to support than it's worth.