Trump’s Great Reset
The international liberal order’s been living on borrowed time, and Trump’s here to collect
The so-called international ‘rules-based’ liberal order is a house of cards built on ideals nobody believes in and rules nobody follows. For too long, America has been its blind trustee — bankrolling the West’s defense, underwriting global trade, and, in short, bleeding itself dry to grease a machine that’s already rusted out.
It swore peace through diplomacy, wealth through open borders, and safety through shared interests. What did we get? Endless wars and a world riding on a specific type of American leadership that they hoped would be strong enough to carry the load but never so mighty it could force anyone into line. Trump’s here to cash the check. Not a minute too soon.
They said this liberal order would lift every boat. Instead, it sank the American middle class. Factories vanished, jobs were shipped off, and whole counties were left to rot at the mercy of foreign oligarchies whose grand contributions to the world were the $1 t-shirt and the rashes they inflict on our skin.
Trump’s Great Reset rejects that schizophrenic dogma. It’s hard-nosed realism where national interest trumps global pie-in-the-sky dreams. The world is shaking, not in terror — but from the bone-cold shiver of waking up after a long coma.
The View From the Kids’ Table
Let’s look at Europe. For decades, they’ve been dining at the grown ups’ table, sipping pinot and pontificating about the wonders of social democracy, all while Uncle Sam footed the bill for their very survival. Trump’s done with that. He’s banished them to the kids’ table, and they’re throwing a tantrum.
While Trump and Putin’s deputies hashed out Ukraine’s endgame in Saudi Arabia, Europe’s suits huddled somewhere, pretending to matter. Europe, old enough to be America’s grandmother, now behaves as a bratty teenage girl — whining for attention, threatening to cut itself if Daddy doesn’t cave. Blame a procession of weak leaders and a public lulled into apathy—an entire continent drunk on denial.
But some freeloaders are worse than others.
Germany takes the crown as Holy Roman Emperor of Slackers. Starting on defense, where a study by the German Economic Institute pegs their shortfall at $425 billion below NATO’s minimum requirements from 1990 to the early 2020s. That’s U.S. taxpayers covering a tab triple Ukraine’s aid just to babysit Berlin. Shameless doesn’t begin to cover it.
Germany takes the crown as Holy Roman Emperor of Slackers
The Baltics and Eastern bloc pay up more than their fair dues, knowing Russia’s history of aggression isn’t the stuff of fairy tales, but a real threat. UK and France might be delinquent but at least they pack nukes and large armed forces that can act as first-line defenses and deterrents against Russia.
Germany? No nukes and a modest military force, not even a single aircraft carrier. More punchline than front line. NATO’s design might’ve kept Germany that way, but that just proves two things: Germany should place funding the alliance much higher on its priority list, and NATO’s overdue for a reform.
What does America get for playing Germany’s knight in shining armor? A $72 billion trade deficit in ’24, while the EU shovels $50 billion to Putin (with record imports of oil and gas), further kneecapping their own industrial base chasing net-zero fantasies. Neither growth nor safety, and it sure as hell doesn’t improve the environment.
Pax Trumpiana
“No American president will sacrifice New York or Boston for Poznan or Frankfurt”
Sergey Karaganov, Head of Russia’s Council for Foreign and Defense Policy
Then there’s Ukraine. The liberal order’s mail-order trophy mistress. She gave the West her youth, beauty, and heart — handing over nukes in Budapest ’94 for magic beans, dancing with NATO membership in Bucharest ’08, the EU in Maidan ’13, and ‘unyielding’ Western support in Minsk ’14. Empty words masking non-existent rings.
Speaking of empty words, Zelenskyy isn’t a dictator, of course. Neither is Trump an autocrat, nor Putin the second coming of Hitler. And this isn’t WWII. By engaging in such name-calling, Trump is flipping the board to get real results. Unless you believe the continuous sacrifice of hundreds of thousands will eventually conjure a miracle from pagan gods, there’s no way out of this conflict without sitting down with Putin to carve up a map and create a buffer zone that actually keeps the peace. Ugly? Sure. But real.
There’s no way out of this conflict without sitting down with Putin to carve up a map and create a buffer zone
I’d wager they’ll settle on a ‘Ukrainian Federation’ — a patchwork of statelets aligned to the West on one side, to Russia on the other, with a buffer zone in between. An outright Ukrainian victory that fully restores sovereignty remains the pipe dream it’s always been. Trump deals with the world as it is, not as we wish it to be. The time to fight Russia was before the war started, but the liberal order was too busy giving itself medals. Biden sure didn’t even try.
As the dust settles, there’ll be flare-ups, which is why the West needs real leverage (maybe mineral rights?), perhaps even a shot at the EU or NATO for the western-most regions.
Anything beats the liberal order’s non-solution. Look at that abject creature some wicked taxidermist brought to life and christened Boris Johnson, who, out of pure liberal smugness, sabotaged the Istanbul peace deal — thinking sanctions and swagger would break Russia. All we got were two extra years of war, Ukraine transformed into an even larger graveyard, and U.S. taxpayers out billions. For a tie.
Further proof the Reset is overdue: under the current mindset (and conservative estimates), 99% of America’s $80 billion aid to Ukraine are non-repayable grants, while 60% of the EU's $50 billion consists of repayable loans. Now, Trump’s the bad guy for looking for a mineral rights deal?
The role of the US as the West’s great de-risker is grossly underestimated. America is the world’s safety net, and nobody’s grateful. Even with Taiwan, Panama, and Greenland taking the spotlight, the U.S. national interest still covers Ukraine’s security — but an endless war helps no one. The liberal dream of a democratic Ukraine died long ago. Trump’s just burying the corpse.
The role of the US as the West’s great de-risker is grossly underestimated. And an endless war helps no one
The End of Woketoberfest
Trump’s not just shouting “America First” — he’s urging every leader to grow a spine and put their own people first. It’s ugly, it’s messy, but it’s necessary. No country ever got saved by handouts, and the U.S. treasury ain’t a charity.
Liberal Capitalism thrived on the idea when you put the right social structures in place — property rights, free speech, democracy, and so on — economic prosperity would follow. Always and everywhere. But, sometimes the invisible hand might be tied behind our backs, and missing a few fingers. Populism’s flipping the script: fix the economy first — at home and abroad — and the social outcomes will follow.
In that sense, Trump’s Great Reset isn’t just some policy tweak; it’s a reckoning—a ‘Fourth Way’ after the Third Way bombed for good. It’s shaking every rotting pillar of the old order: ditching the WHO, the Paris Agreement, the OECD Tax Deal; calling out the outrageous bluffs of defeating Russia in Ukraine, the one-China policy, and the two-state solution.
Trump’s got a message for the WEF suits: his Reset button’s bigger, and unlike theirs, it actually works.
Well, it's about time that realism entered foreign policy. Trump might be a bull in a china closet, but sometimes this disaster needs to happen to clear out obsolete merchandise and replace it with things that customers can use. The detritus left around from a now bastardized make-believe European aristocracy needs to stop relying on arrogance and whining and start paying their own way financially and intellectually. Germany's castration based on its behavior in WWI and WWII allowed it to be a moocher and a loafer on the international scene. As to the rest of Europe, they need to emerge from the mist of 70-year-old institutional thinking. Good article Cauf.